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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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